The protests in Egypt are ongoing but the Islamists have already toppled the Tunisian regime of Ben Ali. According to security officials Islamists were largely instigating the protests in Tunisia under the cover of a popular uprising.
Clearly emboldened by the Tunisian and Egyptian protests, banners were wielded by protesters in Yemen.
At risk is Jordan, Yemen, Syria and the Royal family of Saudi Arabia. These governments are vulnerable when the underlying majority choose Islāmic principles regardless of what the current government structure is.
The riots in Egypt are but an extension of the Islāmic Revolution that swept Iran in 1979. Then another US Democrat President encouraged those demonstrations too.
This is the Islāmic road map so far and the results.
- Iranian revolution, 1978-1979: Mass protests by a wide coalition against dictatorship. Result? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is now president. During the Shah’s reign, Iran marked the anniversary of 2,500 years of continuous monarchy since the founding of the Persian Empire by Cyrus the Great.
- Beirut Spring: Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Druze unite against Syrian control. Moderate government gains power. Result? Hezbollah is now running Lebanon.
- Palestinians have free elections: Voters protest against corrupt regime. Result? Hamas is now running the Gaza Strip.
- Algeria holds free elections: Voters back moderate Islamist group. Result? Military coup; Islamists turn radical; tens of thousands of people killed.
The means to these same ends (democracy, military coup or dictatorship) is immaterial.
What do Egyptians (future voters) really think? They are extremely radical even in comparison to Jordan or Lebanon.
They preferred “Islamists” over “modernizers,” 59% to 27%. In addition, 20 percent said they liked al-Qaeda; 30 percent= Hezbollah; 49 percent= Hamas.
Egyptian Muslims said the following: 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.
In a democracy these views determine how people vote. These are reasons that Egypt will not turn into a moderate, stable, and democratic state:
1) There are few forces favoring this outcome; 2) the rebellion has no organization; 3) Egypt lacks the resources to raise living standards and distribute wealth;4) extremist ideologies are deeply held and widely spread.
A possible outcome: The élite will lose its nerve and fragments, in part demoralized by a lack of Western — especially U.S. — support. The Muslim Brotherhood throws its full weight behind the rebellion. Soldiers refuse to fire at or join the opposition.
A radical regime will emerge, with the Muslim Brotherhood as either ruler or power behind the throne. Then the fundamental transformation will be complete and the next domino will fall. The army will be the wildcard.
Israel will lose all its Middle East Allies and America will have armed them, in the interest of “equality.”